Vermont voters have ushered in a new political order in Montpelier. Now the candidates they elected will have to figure out how to operate inside it.
Republican Gov. Phil Scott will continue to lead the executive branch, but his comparatively narrow margin of victory over Democrat/Progressive Amanda Janoo means he’ll do so with weakened stature.
Democrats, meanwhile, are resurgent in the Legislature, where they’ll enjoy veto-proof supermajorities in both the House and Senate. Progressives also found success Tuesday, more than doubling the number of seats they hold in the House.
"It opens the window a little wider than it has been in the last session."Washington County Sen. Andrew Perchlik
Washington County Sen. Andrew Perchlik, the Democratic chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, told Vermont Public that before the election he had been “cautiously optimistic” his party would benefit from a blue wave in 2026.
“I was surprised what a tsunami it really was in Vermont and across the whole country,” said Perchlik, who’s running for Senate president pro tem in January.
According to unofficial results posted by the Vermont Secretary of State, Democrats will see their numbers grow from 87 to 102 in the House, and from 17 to 20 in the Senate.
Republicans lost 18 seats in the House, entirely eliminating the historic gains they made during the 2024 election. Senate Republicans will see their numbers fall from 13 to eight.
“The Democrats had a better night than the Republicans, especially in the Legislature,” said Senate Minority Leader Scott Beck. “So their voice is going to be a little bit stronger come January. That’s just the way it works.”
How they wield that power remains to be seen. House Majority Leader Lori Houghton, who’s running for speaker of the House, said Democrats’ veto-proof edge “gives us a lot of leeway.” But she said she’d prefer to collaborate with the Scott administration and legislative Republicans on policy proposals that have tripartisan backing.
Their success on that front, she said, will hinge in part on Scott taking a different approach with lawmakers than he has in the past.
“I think he needs to personally change his language about working with the Legislature,” Houghton said. “When he tells Vermonters we’re not working with him, it’s not accurate.”
Perchlik said he, too, prefers a path that involves buy-in from both branches of government. But he said Democratic supermajorities will give the party the option of moving forward with proposals the governor opposes, such as a tax surcharge on income in excess of $500,000 a year.
“We’re definitely going to look at some things that maybe before people thought, ‘Well there’s no reason to do that because the governor will definitely veto it and we can’t override it.’ So it opens the window a little wider than it has been in the last session,” Perchlik said.
Perchlik said larger caucuses for Democrats also means they have to accommodate a bigger ideological tent.
Barre Town Rep. Gina Galfetti, a Republican who’s also running for speaker, said there’s one platform that can unite every lawmaker in Montpelier regardless of party affiliation: “Every single candidate in the state ran on affordability,” she said.
Galfetti said she’s already collaborating with a Progressive ally on down payment assistance legislation. And she said there’s a scenario in which all parties can emerge as winners after the next biennium.
“I think that we’re going to have to be very careful and work on issues that we really can make progress on quickly, to show Vermonters that we’re still effective and functioning and looking out for their best interests,” she said.
Natalie Silver, a Democratic campaign strategist, said Tuesday’s results — Scott won by a smaller margin than in any of his previous gubernatorial bids — has cost him whatever power he enjoyed over the Legislature. But she said Democrats deviate from his overriding fiscal message at their own peril.
“I think that it would be a mistake for Democrats to take away from this election the idea that they have a mandate to tax and spend,” Silver said.
That’s not to say Democrats shouldn’t chart their own course in Montpelier, she said.
“They do not need to kowtow to this governor,” Silver said. “He is in the weakest position that he has ever been in, and so they should see and own their power and do what they said they were going to do, which is lower taxes for Vermonters.”
Progressives will hold seven seats in the House next year, up from the three they have this year. Burlington Rep. Brian Cina, a 10-year veteran of the Progressive caucus, said he’s felt iced out by Democratic and Republican leadership in the past.
“So I’m hoping that we will be shown a little more respect here, by the Democrats and the Republicans,” he said.
While Cina said he wants to see Democrats and Progressives unify next year, he said he thinks it would be a strategic mistake for them to use their numbers to “ram things down people’s throats.”
“If we do the same thing we did in the past, which I’m concerned is going to happen, there’s going to be a red wave again soon, and it’s not going to take long,” he said.
Montpelier Rep. Kate McCann, another Democratic contender for speaker of the House, came into the Legislature the same year Democrats earned their last supermajority, in 2023. She’s said she’s also wary of Democrats and Progressives overplaying their hand.
Scott castigated the Legislature during that biennium for enacting a new payroll tax and moving forward with renewable energy mandates, despite his vetoes.
“Things didn’t go as planned,” McCann said of the 2023-2024 biennium. “I think that Vermonters recognize that when there is a supermajority, we tend to spend, spend, spend. And we need to make sure that we’re being held accountable for every dollar spent.”
McCann said she will, if elected speaker, lead the push to change the way Vermont raises money — she wants the state to pay for schools with an income tax, not a property tax.
“I think that Vermonters recognize that when there is a supermajority, we tend to spend, spend, spend. And we need to make sure that we’re being held accountable for every dollar spent.”Rep. Kate McCann, D-Montpelier
Scott will set the mood for the new political environment when he delivers his inaugural address and budget proposal in January. He acknowledged Tuesday night that the Legislature he delivers those addresses to will be far different than the one that partially embraced his controversial education reform agenda during the past two sessions.
“Vermonters have made their choices, not just for me, but for the Legislature,” he said. “And I respect their decisions.”
Scott said he and Democratic lawmakers will “disagree strongly” on some of the key issues up for debate in Montpelier. But he said they’ll have to resolve those disagreements if the government Vermonters elected Tuesday is going to work on their behalf.
“Let’s find ways to make meaningful progress on the challenges we face,” Scott said. “We don’t have to abandon our principles to work together, and we don’t have to agree on everything, especially if we want to accomplish anything in this state.”
