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Some Iranians express pessimism over the war and the potential for regime change

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

President Trump will address the nation tonight with an update on the war in Iran. And there's been a lot of mixed messaging about this conflict from the administration on when this will end and what the goals are. But what we do know is since the U.S. and Israel started the war over a month ago, 13 U.S. service members have been killed, more than 1,700 Iranians have been killed, according to the government there, and even as the U.S. says it's negotiating with Iran, Iran says it's not. Trump said Monday he will bomb Iranian power and desalination plants next week if Iran continues to block a key waterway. Then Tuesday, he backtracked, saying he wouldn't have anything to do with it and the U.S. would be out of Iran in two or three weeks. To talk this through, we're joined by NPR's Emily Feng from the Turkey-Iran border. Good morning, Emily.

EMILY FENG, BYLINE: Good morning, Leila.

FADEL: OK, Emily, what happened overnight?

FENG: As you said, a lot. Israel's military said they carried out 230 strikes on Iran in just the last day. Israel's widened a ground invasion into Lebanon, and Iran's been striking back at its Gulf neighbors, especially military bases that are used by the U.S. They're also threatening this week to hit U.S. tech companies. And one of these attacks on a U.S. base injured as many as 20 U.S. service members in Saudi Arabia, as NPR has been reporting. And then to add to that, an American reporter was kidnapped in Baghdad this week. A security source in Iraq tells NPR that an Iran-backed militia is believed to be involved in her kidnapping.

Iran's been warning the U.S. is preparing for a ground invasion as thousands of U.S. Marines and sailors have arrived. There are thousands more soldiers headed this way. But as Trump said this week, the U.S. could be done with the war in Iran in two to three weeks. He said that there's been regime change already, though Iran experts say there has not been. And on top of that, there's back-channel negotiations. Iran's foreign minister told Al Jazeera yesterday he has been in contact through intermediaries with the U.S. envoy, Steve Witkoff, but he didn't call these negotiations. And China and Pakistan have tried to present themselves as mediators, and they've offered a ceasefire plan to the U.S. and Iran.

FADEL: Man, it's kind of dizzying, everything that's going on all at...

FENG: Yep.

FADEL: ...The same time. Have either Iran or the U.S. responded to that proposal you just described?

FENG: No, and people here where I am feel total uncertainty. On one hand, there's the possibility of the U.S. suddenly ending the war, and on the other, a possible U.S. ground invasion of Iran.

And, Leila, I want to explain a little bit why I'm talking to you from Turkey. It's because we have not been able to go to Iran. So over the last few weeks, I've been talking to as many Iranians as I can here in this Turkish border area. There are students and travelers and even government officials from Iran here. And talking to them in the last week, I've noticed this new strain of pessimism about the war.

FADEL: Tell me about that pessimism.

FENG: So at first, many Iranians were hopeful that the U.S. was bombing and killing top Iranian leaders. They were hoping this could lead to a new and possibly better Iranian government. Here's one Iranian man I spoke to yesterday who described his jubilation right after Iran's former supreme leader, Khamenei, was killed at the start of the war. And the Iranians you hear here did not want to be identified by name. They fear regime retaliation in Iran.

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #1: Did it really happen? Like, did they kill the supreme leader, and is this going to be a whole different country? Is our country going to be open?

FENG: Also, many Iranians I spoke to were horrified at their own government killing thousands of their own citizens after big anti-government protests in Iran earlier this year. Here's one woman I spoke to yesterday speaking about those protesters, and she talks about trying to balance her fear of dying in this war but also wanting a better future for her country.

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #2: Maybe I have to forget myself and also think about them because they also were so young. Most of them were very young, and they also wanted to leave. And with this regime, I think it's not possible.

FENG: But her hopes have dissipated. She asked me, what changed? Nothing. The government's still here, and we're still being bombed.

FADEL: NPR's Emily Feng on Iran's border with Turkey. Thank you, Emily.

FENG: Thanks, Leila. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

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Emily Feng
Emily Feng is an international correspondent for NPR covering China, Taiwan and beyond.
Leila Fadel
Leila Fadel is a host of Morning Edition, as well as NPR's morning news podcast Up First.